What this ICM calculator does
Tournament chips are not money. In a cash game 60% of the chips on the table is 60% of the money; in a tournament where first pays 50% of the pool, it is not, because the chip leader can only finish first once and the rest of their chips are worth progressively less. The Independent Chip Model is the standard way to price that. It assumes each player's chance of finishing first is their share of the chips, works out the probability of every possible finishing order from there, and multiplies by the payouts. This calculator does that computation exactly, using the Malmuth-Harville method with full enumeration of finishing orders, for up to 30 players and any payout structure.
Three things sit on top of the raw equity. A deal maker that compares an ICM split, a chip chop, and an ICM split with money left on the table for first. A bubble factor table that tells any player how much more a chip lost costs than a chip won against each opponent, and what hand equity that implies for calling an all-in. And a share link, so the other players at a final table can open the same numbers on their own phones.
Using it
Set the payouts first, as percentages of a prize pool or as amounts; the presets cover the usual sit-and-go and final table structures. Then enter the stacks, one player per row, or paste a list from a lobby. The ICM table updates as you type: chips, chip share against ICM share, the dollar value of each stack, and the value of a thousand chips in each stack, which is the clearest way to see that a short stack's chips are worth more each than a big stack's.
In the deal maker, ICM gives each player exactly their equity. Chip chop guarantees everyone the lowest remaining payout and splits the rest in proportion to chips, which is what big stacks propose and what the table should compare against the ICM column. ICM + save takes an amount off first place, splits the rest by ICM and plays on for the amount set aside. The two difference columns show who gains and who loses under each method, to the cent.
A worked example: the sit-and-go bubble
The default spot is a $10 nine-player sit-and-go with four left and 50/30/20 payouts: stacks of 6,100, 3,900, 2,400 and 1,100. The chip leader holds 45% of the chips but only 36% of the prize pool, $32.19 of the $90. The short stack's 8% of the chips is worth 12% of the pool, $10.57. A chip chop would hand the leader $40.67, an overpayment of $8.48 taken from the three shorter stacks, $4.57 of it from the third-place stack alone. Those are the numbers that decide whether to accept a deal, and they are not guessable.
The bubble factor table for the chip leader shows why big stacks should still be careful: against the second stack the factor is 1.47, meaning a lost chip costs 47% more than a won chip gains, and the leader needs 59.5% equity to call an all-in from that player with nothing else in the pot. Against the short stack it is 1.09, which is why the big stack attacks the short stack and avoids the medium one. Switch the hero to the second stack and its factor against the leader is 2.93, a 74.5% equity requirement, which is the bubble in a single number.
Reading bubble factors
A bubble factor of 1.00 is pure chip EV, as in a cash game. A factor of 1.5 means a chip lost costs one and a half chips won, so a coin flip is no longer a neutral decision: you need better than 60% to call for your whole stack. The Equity needed column converts the factor into the minimum hand equity for calling an all-in of the effective stack with no dead money, which is the strictest case; with blinds and antes already in the pot the real threshold is a little lower. Use the Hold'em odds calculator to get your hand's equity against the shoving range, and compare.
What ICM assumes and where it bends
ICM takes no account of position, blind levels, skill or who is about to be forced all-in; it values stacks as if the tournament were decided by drawing lots weighted by chips. For deals that is exactly right, because a deal is a snapshot. For in-game decisions it is a very good first approximation that overstates the value of short stacks about to be blinded off and understates the value of a big stack that can pressure the table. Future-game simulation models try to correct for that; ICM remains the number everyone negotiates from. For the clock, blind structure and payouts of a home tournament there is the tournament director, which uses the same ICM engine for its chop calculator.
Frequently asked questions
The Independent Chip Model: a way to turn tournament chips into money. It assumes each player's chance of finishing first is their share of the chips, then works out the probability of every finishing order from there, and multiplies those probabilities by the payouts. The result is what each stack is worth right now, which is not proportional to chips because the payouts are not proportional either.
A chip chop pays everyone in proportion to chips, which overpays the big stack: 60% of the chips does not mean 60% of the prize pool when first place pays only 50% of it. ICM accounts for the fact that a big stack can only finish first once. The deal maker shows both so you can see exactly who gains from which method.
A common compromise: take an amount off first place, split the rest by ICM, and play on for the amount set aside. It keeps an incentive to win while locking up most of the money. Enter the amount left on the table and the calculator splits the remainder.
How much more a chip you lose is worth than a chip you win, in ICM dollars, against a particular opponent. A factor of 1.00 is pure chip EV, as in a cash game. A factor of 2.00 means busting costs you twice what doubling gains, so you need a much stronger hand to call an all-in; the Equity needed column converts it into the minimum hand equity for a call with nothing else in the pot.
Exact ICM up to 30 players for any number of paid places that keeps the computation under a few hundred thousand states, which covers every final table and most two-table situations. Beyond that it switches to a Monte Carlo simulation and says so.
Yes. Share link copies a URL with the stacks and payouts in it, so the other players can open the same numbers on their own phones.
